You’ve heard whispers about tourism being “down” this year, but here’s what most people don’t realize: the U.S. is experiencing a major tourism revenue collapse, the largest since the pandemic, and stands alone among major economies in this decline. While social media still buzzes with vacation photos, the numbers tell a brutal story.
The U.S. is projected to lose $12.5 billion in international visitor spending in 2025; a sharp 7% year-over-year decline. And when domestic slowdowns and ripple effects are added in, the total impact could be much larger. Some estimates suggest losses across nine key states could approach $100 billion. This isn’t just about fewer selfies at landmarks, it’s about jobs, local economies, and a fragile recovery at risk.
California
After a record tourism year in 2023, Visit California now forecasts a 0.7% drop in visitors for 2025, the first decline since COVID. This dip is largely due to a 9.2% plunge in international arrivals, especially from Canada. In 2024, about 1.8 million Canadians visited California, spending over $3 billion.
However, rising anti-U.S. rhetoric, tariffs, and early 2025 wildfires near Los Angeles scared off travelers, triggering a sharp fall in bookings. These factors combine to cloud California’s usually sunny tourism outlook for the year ahead.
New York
New York’s tourism agencies are preparing for a multi-billion-dollar setback. The NYC tourism authority recently cut its forecast, expecting 400,000 fewer visitors and about $4 billion less in spending than in 2024. Political tensions, including border tariffs upsetting Canadian and European travelers, plus travel advisories abroad, weigh heavily.
With international arrivals down between 7% and 11% this year, iconic spots like Times Square, Broadway, and the Hamptons are bracing for quieter crowds and slower seasons ahead.
Nevada
Las Vegas, heavily dependent on foreign gamblers, is feeling the pinch. Early 2025 figures show 7.8% fewer visitors and a 4.8% drop in Strip gaming revenue in March compared to 2024. Hotel occupancy fell from 85.3% to 82.9%.
Industry leaders blame renewed U.S. travel bans and visa complications, with warnings from Germany, the UK, and others. Major markets like Europe and Canada are pulling back, leading hotels to cut staff. These shifts dim the city’s usual summer boom and raise concerns for the rest of the year.
Illinois
Chicago’s tourism growth has stalled. In 2023, Illinois attracted 112 million visitors, mostly domestic, who spent $47 billion. But first-quarter 2025 hotel data flagged trouble, Chicago posted the lowest occupancy among the top 10 U.S. convention cities. Forecasts now project about 9% fewer international arrivals this year.
Analysts cite falling convention bookings and cautious consumer spending due to inflation and expensive airfares. If foreign visitors decline, driven by trade tensions and a strong dollar, Illinois risks slipping from its recent tourism highs.
Massachusetts
Boston and New England face a tourism chill. Boston planners now expect about 10% fewer international visitors in 2025 than previously forecast. Much of Massachusetts’ $2.9 billion in foreign visitor spending comes from Canadians, around 800,000 annually.
But U.S.–Canada border crossings plunged nearly 30% in March 2025. Educators, conference organizers, and hotel operators warn of a sharp drop in spring and summer bookings. Popular destinations like Cape Cod and Nantucket, favored by Canadian travelers, could see quieter beaches and slower seasons ahead.
Maine
Maine is sounding alarms about losing Canadian visitors. In 2024, about 800,000 Canadians spent nearly $498 million on lodging, dining, and attractions. Governor Janet Mills estimates as many as 225,000 fewer Canadian travelers in 2025 due to tariffs and diplomatic tensions. Local tourism boards warn this will leave lodges and campgrounds with big gaps.
Many Maine businesses, from rustic B&Bs to seafood shacks and park tours, rely on spring and summer Canadians. A sharp decline means lower sales, layoffs, and canceled events across the state’s tourism industry.
Pennsylvania
Philadelphia-area tourism could slow sharply if international visitors vanish. Last year, 1.2 million foreign visitors (45% from Canada) pumped roughly $1.2 billion into Philly’s economy. But Canadian bookings are down about 70% year-over-year.
Analysts warn that if U.S. visitor spending falls by the predicted $18 billion under current trade tensions, big cities like Philadelphia would lose millions. Museums, historic sites, and even Pocono ski resorts nervously await recovery, especially since 80,000 Pennsylvania jobs depend on these travelers and the revenue they bring.
Hawaii
Despite easing travel restrictions, Hawaii faces a summer stumble. Airlines have cut planned seats to the islands by 7–8% for summer 2025 versus 2024. Advance hotel bookings plunged 35–40% for mid-June through mid-August. Hawaii’s long-haul markets, Japan, Canada, and Oceania, haven’t fully bounced back.
Hoteliers brace for lower occupancy as visitors turn to cheaper alternatives like Mexican resorts and cruise lines. This softer demand threatens Hawaii’s usual premium appeal and could slow the islands’ summer tourism recovery.
Arizona
Arizona’s tourism is mixed, but warning signs flash. The state welcomed about 800,000 Canadian visitors in 2023, who spent nearly $750 million. However, 2025 data show a staggering 70% drop in Canadian bookings, especially among snowbirds and retirees.
Even a 10% fall in Canadian arrivals could cost the U.S. up to $2 billion overall. While domestic and Latin American visitors help offset losses, Arizona’s spring and summer resorts and golf courses face big risks if regular winter visitors don’t return in force.
The $100 Billion Reckoning
Summer 2025 paints a picture of sharp contrasts. Major cities like New York and Las Vegas face a tourism hangover, expected to bear the brunt of lost visitor spending. Meanwhile, domestic travel is gaining momentum as Americans favor local destinations. States like Texas and Colorado, along with “second cities” from Charleston to Omaha, are being rediscovered.
Families prioritize cost and comfort, while viral travel trends highlight affordable, safe spots. This summer’s split reveals shifting priorities, favoring familiarity, bargains, and authenticity, and those states aligned with these values are set to come out ahead.
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